by Caryn » Thu Aug 13, 2015 7:30:49 pm
HERE IS MY PRE-SHOW ASSESSMENT
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Mykines Tribe:
Anthony
Very impressed with this nigga. He seems smart and knows what he's doing here. I think laying low through the first few rounds will be a great idea because this is an all newbie season, and obviously there will be idiots here who think they are the shit when in actuality they're not. He knows when it's time to start making million dollar moves to get him to the end. I think he'll be very social as well, he seems like one of those guys that will send very long PMs which will be good for him. I think he'll be in it for the long haul.
Cassandra
FAKE AS FUCK. If this dumb fucking bitch actually thinks flipping back and forth between alliances is a good idea then she needs to get a fucking reality check. And she thinks the Brian Heidik style of play is a good idea? The same Brian Heidik who was so unemotional and so unsocial that he almost lost to fucking Clay of all people? What a dumb fucking bitch. Cassandra is the epitome of what I said in Anthony's write up, a newbie who thinks they're the shit when they're actually not.
Jessica
I think she'll be the social queen of the season for sure. She seems very endearing and she'll be very fun to talk to. I think she needs to be half & half with her priorities on being social and strategic though. She seems mostly social, not a lot of strategy. Having a strong social game will get you far but she needs to as much strategic as she is social if she really wants to win this thing.
Liliana
I don't think she will last long. She seems like she's only here to be a coattail rider and not an actual leader. I mean, yeah, you can get far by riding coattails but you have to be very social as well, and she doesn't seem to be all that social.
Mookie
I'm getting serious Namibia Cochran vibes from this guy. He knows what he's talking about, but once the game starts I don't think he'll actually deliver. I think he will be overwhelmed by things happening around him, especially since this is his first ORG. And he doesn't seem to be a super social guy. Very mixed on this guy, I can see him either going out early or making it to the merge but end up on the jury early.
Papa Smurf
OK, I'm fully convinced that this is Papa Bear reborn. Like seriously, I'm convinced that this is one of Papa Bear's IRL friends or something and PB asked him to apply for this. He is literally Papa Bear through & through. He's an old guy, plans on telling ridiculous lies, will probably be a psychopath etc. There's no way this guy is lasting long, but he will definitely deliver the entertainment.
Rita
This person used "lol" so many times in their application I'm convinced this is USAKeith Of All People. Anyways, I think Rita will be our "robbed" pre-merger this year. She seems like she'll be a boss who's not afraid to make big moves and be straight up and blunt with people but that's what ultimately is going to cost her here. She seems like a bitch though as well. I see her being an early boot.
Rocky
Ladies & gentlemen, we have another Vitinho on our hands. But seriously, how many trainwreck castaways does this tribe have? Cassandra, Papa Smurf, Rita and now this douchebag. But seriously, I think this is Vitinho reborn. He'll be stupid but still very social, he'll be good at immunities, and he'll bring the laughs. I surprisingly see Rocky lasting pretty long here.
Stacy
Early boot. Jesus fucking christ, this tribe has a lot of potential early boots, but I think this one is certain. She wants to "keep quiet" which is absolutely fucking stupid because this a social game. She doesn't seem very interested with her one sentence replies to each question. Definitely not lasting long.
Yau Man
OK, here me out guys, because I think this will be an incredibly unpopular opinion but: I see Yau Man lasting long. Yes, he's an asshole and yes, he's arrogant as fuck but I think he can turn that into something beautiful. Call me crazy, but I see that sort of Dr Will in him where he can be arrogant to people but yet it comes out to others as a sort of charming quality about him. Plus he definitely has the strategic mind to back up his claims.
Svinoy Tribe:
Adam
I get Varner vibes from this guy. I remember when Nepal first started Varner didn't seem like he was all that from his application but then he came out and was a really funny and charming guy who after the first few rounds easily adapted to the strategy of the game and became arguably the biggest threat. I sort of see the same thing happening to Adam here, and I think he will last a while.
Candice
If Rita is going to be the loudmouth bitch of the season then I definitely see Candice being the silent bitch type. The one that's nice to your face but in the confessionals they're absolutely slaying you. I see Candice being a very cold & calculated player, but I still think she has the chops to fake playing nice to people and maneuvering the social game really her. I see her lasting long.
Cecilia
I think she'll be the little sweetheart angel this season. She'll be adorable and fun and social, but too afraid to play the cutthroat strategic game. Which is why she'll either be taken out early or used as a number by some of the more strategic personalities here and then have her throat slit when the time is right.
Flicka
I definitely think Flicka has her head on a swivel here. She knows she has to be ruthless here to win, but still maintain that kind personality. Furthermore, she knows the only person she can trust her and her only, which is very good on her part. Only thing I will say is she doesn't seem like she'll be super social so she'll need to work on that.
JP
I think JP will be the Anthony of this tribe, except he'll be more ruthless and more strategic than the latter. Like Anthony, he also seems like the type to send super long messages which is good. I think his plan to turn his allies against each other when the time comes is a good idea, and I think if he's social enough he'll be able to pull it off. Only thing I will say is that he seems like the type that will start an alliance. My philosophy is that you shouldn't be the one to start alliances, you need to let the alliances come to you. Because it will paint you as the cult leader and ultimately put a bigger target on your back later down the line.
Nate
Very reminiscent of the Nate from Crashcourse. He's a newbie who is smart and has some good ideas which will get him far, but his inexperience will catch up with him. Once again, I think laying low at first is a smart idea, and I think he'll be social enough to back up his game.
Ozzy
Definitely seems like a goofball, which I think he should channel into his social game because it will make him a lot of fun to talk to. Since the rep is Ozzy, I assume this guy will be good at challenges, or at least he thinks he is. Strategy wise he doesn't seem to be all there, but if he's good at challenges and fun to talk to in PM's, he should have no problem lasting long, although eventually he could be taken out as a threat.
Penner
First off, great job with the casting here. I think this guy really embodies Penner's talking abilities, and I think he will be the best narrator here and his confessionals will always be the first I open. I think his "roadmap" of his strategy is brilliant and will easily get him far here, but I think starting to make the big moves around F5 or F6 would be too little too late to get him the win if he ended up making it to the end. Being a loyal number until the merge is fine, but after that you really need to start thinking about you and you alone, and maybe explore a few options rather than sticking with the same alliance.
Rebecca
Like Stacy, doesn't seem to be very social and seems uninterested with the short replies in her application. Early boot, especially on this tribe.
Stephannie
She seems to be super social, but I think sort of playing the middle isn't a good idea because whoever you end up sticking with long term, you're bound to be the lowest on the totem pole. Either that or you could get caught and be voted out. I think she'll just be a loyal number in this game honestly.
