Tell me how you're feeling about making it this far, and what your plan is now that all of you are in one big tribe.Well I'm feeling great about making the merge! For a while I thought that I was
"destined to be pre-merge" just by fate which is why I worked my ASS OFF to get here, and I'm ecstatic that it happened.
Now the one thing I'm worried about is being the first merge boot, because it's an ambiguous land where nobody knows for certain if they're going to be jury or pre-jury... such a terrifying point in the game
My plan? Well I feel like one of my strengths in this game is "getting to be a well-liked and powerful member in big groups" as shown by how the Svinoy 1.0 tribe went... but the only "power player" I was on a tribe with since the first tribe was Jessica... and we were "enemies" in a way... so all the "power players" know each other and have spent a significant time in the game together, and I'm coming from Svinoy with a lot more underestimated or less active players...
So all the people I'd normally be aligned with with this many people left in the game are people who were all together on the other tribe... so I'm really going to have to work harder than ever to get them on my side and to get in good with them.
I'm NOT going to sit here and complain about numbers/swaps/etc. though. I watched Kass's ET interview today and she talked about how the whole time in Cagayan she was on the bottom and managed to make it to 3rd place.
Being on the bottom isn't the style of game I like to play, but I'm going to have to navigate myself through this merge with what I come into it with. I'm here, so I can't complain.
How are you going to survive this next vote? How are you going to win the game?Apparently I'm already a target... but this isn't my first time entering a new tribe as public enemy #1 and turning things around. I've done it before in this game and I can do it again now.
I had a great relationship with Cecilia on Svinoy 1.0 (though, as I said, I never FULLY trusted her because I know she's a strong gameplayer who is ultimately looking out for herself just like how I'm looking out for myself) but I think she's telling me the truth with what she's saying...
Cassandra and that crew view me as a threat. I fully understand why. I'm coming in with a perceived alliance of 4, and whatever Jessica is inevitably saying isn't helping either. I'm sure people don't want that Svinoy 2.0 foursome to last very long in this merge, so they're going to try to split it up... I think I'm viewed as the
"biggest threat" or even the
"leader" of that group.
I honestly don't see Svinoy 2.0 being successful numbers-wise... if we bring Rebecca back with us we'd still need two more votes, and I honestly don't think there are two people who would be willing to flip over to us.
So I'm going to take Cecilia's advice. I'm going to lay low, and I'm going to sit down and offer myself as an extra vote to whoever needs it. Ideally it will buy me a round or two of safety before I can start shaking things up again.
From the sounds of it Cassandra is kind of "running the show" right now, so I'm going to really suck up to her and try to let her know that it would benefit her game to keep me around... how it would benefit her game? I'm not so sure. But I'm trying to just tell her what she wants to hear and hopefully it warms her up to me (because I heard she mentioned voting me off... I think her mind can be changed).
I'm not going to make it obvious what I'm doing because then it wouldn't work... I just need to subtly convince her that I should be kept over someone like Liliana (though may be hard because I heard Cassandra and Liliana were tight before the first swap).
How am I going to win the game?
Well I think I have a pretty good resume so far, and if I survive these early merge rounds without scratches it would turn from a good resume into a great resume in my opinion... then I need to just navigate myself to the end and plead my case.
Ideally I'll keep the personal bonds I have even after having to vote them off... which is tough, and I know that's the whole point of the game! So I'm going to have to be careful if I go through with backstabbing someone like Liliana this round... and backstabbing other people in the future.
I'd probably want to go to the end with someone like Flicka?
Or even Cecilia. I feel like if I vote out Cecilia she'd be mad at me and wouldn't give me her jury vote... and I definitely think I could plead a better case for myself to win than she could. At least right now.
Though I
KNOW Cecilia probably wouldn't let me get to the end... so I probably do have to get rid of her even though we call each other our "#1 allies!" ...probably need to get her out before she gets me out... it will feel awful, but if I want to win it's probably what I have to do.
But I'm thinking too far forward right now. I need to survive this round before I can think of next round... and so on. I can't say
"oh I may have to vote Cecilia out at final 6," because I still have to find out how I'm going to get to final 6 in the first place, y'know?
In other words, size up your chances and size up your tribemates for us.I think my chances will go way up if I survive these early merge votes. But I am still terrified of my threat status combined with the old tribal lines. It's easy for people to just band together and get rid of me if they see me as
"the Svinoy 2.0 leader" so I need to shake that and survive...
I think laying low and "doing the bidding" of some of these bigger players for a couple rounds will help them forget about me possibly? At least that's what I'm planning.
Sum up my tribemates? I guess I'll do a ranking on chance to win the game and then do a little comment about each... (without including myself).
1. Penner. I think he's really in a good spot unless Cecilia's crackpot plan goes through. He is a really likeable person, and is placed well in the game. He's in control but I don't think a lot of people are wanting him out yet.
2. Candice. She's in a good spot and good with PM's, but I think she stands out more than Penner as a threat just because she isn't as good at the social game (imo). I find her less likeable and so I think people would find it easier to blindside her and she'd have a tougher time stopping it than Penner.
3. Cecilia. She's a big player, and I've said enough about her already. She has a plan to take down the Hestur people so I think she definitely has a shot
4. Cassandra. In with Candice and Penner, but I think she's
way too much of "the godfather" right now... she's the obvious "runner-of-the-show" and people are going to catch on fast. She may be in charge for a couple rounds, but her downfall is coming.
5. Jessica. I can't see any of the other big players wanting to keep her around at all... her social game is okay, but it's good enough to set off "threat! threat! threat!" alarms to everyone. Plus she is constantly winning immunity challenges. I'm not sure if she's well-connected enough to last past the early merge, and I feel she's in danger if she doesn't win immunity.
6. Nate. He could definitely be a wildcard in this, and he's sitting on the right side of the numbers right now. He isn't talking much game with me so I don't have a good read, but I definitely think he is still a contender.
7. Rebecca. If she can make it to the end somehow, I think she could have a bit of a story... people are starting to warm up to her, and she could tell a good underdog story. I feel like people would get too hot-headed to respect her game at all. I'd imagine a lot of
"*I* PLAYED THE GAME! YOU DON'T DESERVE TO BE THERE!" comments at her if she makes FTC
8. Flicka. She could go unnoticed as a non-threat for a while and maybe make it to the end. I think she's less respected than Flicka despite making a lot of moves... I worry that even if she pleaded her case, people would already make their minds up that she
"doesn't deserve it" ...they've been talking all game so far about how she's bad at the game, so that mentality probably won't change unless something HUGE happens... and even then, first impressions are hard to shake for some people.
9. Liliana. Too threatening, already deemed "untrustworthy," and on the wrong side of the numbers. Plus she may have been busy at the time, but on Svinoy 2.0 and Svinoy 3.0 she didn't strike me as a strong PM'er, so I don't know what her chances would be at convincing people to keep her around. She may plead a good case if she makes it to the end, but I can't see her making it there.
10. Rocky. Similar to Liliana, but in my opinion he has a better social game (at least he has better personal one-on-one conversations with me). But he's quieter than Liliana, so people may respect him less if he makes it to the end.
11. Stacy. I keep forgetting she's still in the game. I've heard from people that she only shows up right before a challenge and then sends PM's then, and leaves. I've only heard from her twice since the merge. (Though we are having a surprisingly good conversation). Unless she picks things up, she's going to get people saying
"Why is Stacy still in the game? She's never here," more and more the longer the game goes on.
That's my projection on the merge tribe and everyone's chances to win.
I think I would place myself either right below Jessica or right below Nate on the list. As much as I'd like to say I have more of a chance at winning than Jessica, as it stands now it looks like she has numbers.
If (girl why do I keep saying 'if'? ...) ~WHEN~ I survive these early rounds, I trust that if I re-calibrate my tribal size-up I'll be a lot closer to the top
by Jeff Varner » Wed Aug 26, 2015 9:05:10 pm 
