Episode 13

[Jeff Probst]

Well... that was a council and a half. Tell me what you think about what transpired, what you think your chances of are making the final 3 and if you think you have a shot at winning the whole thing or not.

[Nate]

Well I feel like now I do have at least 50% shot of making the final tribal council. I'd say a little less which. About two posts in with Stacy I realized I might as well just continue with it because I feel like people would think I would lose in a jury vote, which is not incorrect.

I feel like Stacey and Penner in the final three is still the best option, I can't let Rocky get that far and I don't think I could risk an India with Rebecca, but I do think some of the jury member's egos are either too big to let that happen or too big to let me win, so

However, because Stacy fought with me, I don't think I could really keep her as a goat for that long. I would need immunity wins to make that happen because she would always vote for me, I'd take out Candice and Rocky before I take out either Stacey or Rebecca. The only problem is that idk how i'd get the votes to make a move at F5.

If I were to power rankings on likelihood in the FTC:
Penner - Most likely -> he'd only get voted out after me, and there's not that much time to do that now.
Rebecca -> pretty likely. I don't think anybody would take her out if not the F4.
Rocky -> he'd need to make a move at F5, which is definitely possible. He's a smart cookie.
Nate -> I'd need a final five immunity. I can't think of a way that I won't be targeted at F5 but I do think I'm . Maybe if I keep Candice find the idol and vote out Rebecca, I feel like I might be able to make a majority at F5.
Stacy -> she's on the oust. She could be the victim of a Rebecca/Rocky/Her move at F5 and I do think that's a possibility
Candice - Least likely -> pretty obvious threat at this point, has made no enemies on the jury

My goal is to avoid third place, which I hope I did. I'd be happy if I came second even so I could join EuroStranded if that's still a thing and I could get 3rd->2nd->1st

[Nate]

I feel like I made my fair share of enemies and lost a couple of jury votes, which may or may not lead to me getting out of the game. At the very least I have a move I could point to and I have a lot of blood on my hands.

Candice is probably out next unless if she makes a move. I feel like a move would have to be made at F5 to get Rocky out.

[Nate]

I also can't make any sense of the immunity idol clues, I've been googling air line disasters, tunnels, flights, i have no idea

[Trashley Markwood]

Stay strong <3 Found any interesting airline disasters? I love Air Crash Investigations.

[Nate]

Stay strong <3 Found any interesting airline disasters? I love Air Crash Investigations.

One of the airplanes that crashed in the Faroe Islands was literally called BAE 146-200. Love you bae.

Also, speaking of airplanes, I'm going on one that should be going near the Faroe Islands on Friday so I don't feel like this is an ideal topic.

[Nate]

The more I think about it, the more I HAVE to bring both Penner and Stacey to the Final 3. There is literally no other way.

> Candice would get Cass, CiCi, Jessica/Stacy (if Stacy's not there), and the Svinoys if they don't have a rep.
> The Svinoys will place four votes (i.e. essentially enough to win) on whichever of them makes the Final 3.

I have to get out Candice now, and then I have to try to pray to god and hope it works

[Brenda Lowe]

What votes would Penner & Stacy get in that theoretical F3?

I have an exercise I tend to play out when I'm at this point of a game, and that is to try predict the boot order if there were no immunities in the way. At what point do you think people would like to see you leave for each of their endgame plans?

[Nate]

What votes would Penner & Stacy get in that theoretical F3?

I have an exercise I tend to play out when I'm at this point of a game, and that is to try predict the boot order if there were no immunities in the way. At what point do you think people would like to see you leave for each of their endgame plans?

Dream Scenario:
F6 - Candice
F5 - Rocky
F4 - Rebecca

Votes:
Stephannie: Penner or I. She never spoke to Stacy. We had a few good talks on the merge, in my proto FTC speech I do quote her tribal council a lot, and I did get out Jessica, so maybe me?
Flicka: Penner? Me? I never really had the chance to talk to her so idk. I feel like they probably talked on Svinoy 1.0 which is her only big interaction with any of us. I think she would vote with Stephannie though for the sake of forming a voting bloc.
CiCi: Wildcard. Me? Nah, I can see it go anyway.
Cassandra: Wildcard.
Liliana: Her elimination vote was me, but we did talk. I'd say Penner because I don't think she'd support Jessica. But the "I eliminated Jessica" argument still stands
Jessica: Stacy.
Candice: Penner? Me? I don't think she'll be as bitter as say a Jessica.
Rocky: Me? I think he'd vote for who he'd think was the best player.
Rebecca: Depends on the way she gets out. Maybe Stacy because in this situation I + Penner betray her?

So that's a win for Penner I think? Granted, a lot of that is uncertainty but that's the best shot I got. Also if it's portrayed as if I'm the leader I think I'll get a bit more favor with the Svinoys who I wouldn't get any favor from in any other FInal 3 scenario.