Episode 09

[Jeff Probst]

With the game ramping up and councils coming faster and more often, are you prepared for the endgame?

Have you been exploring all of your options in this game, or do you have only one clear direction to follow?

Do you believe any of your allies are planning to betray you?

[Nate]

So, I feel like the last tribal council pretty much confirmed that Liliana is going out tenth. I was pretty sure that we’d be given the weekend for the Final 9 because that’s going to be a vital vote – mainly because I think Cassandra is smart enough to not recognize that Stacy/Jessica/Cecilia/I have a strong four. In my opinion the rallying call for “the game gets real right now” is when the seven person alliance ‘cracks’ which I think will probably happen at 9, mainly because without Lilliana, Rocky and Rebecca become their own separate islands and it’s the last chance for the Hesturs to get a vote over the Mykines. If I get past the final nine, that is when the time comes to ditch Cecilia. It could be anywhere from the Final Six to Eight, but I don’t want a repeat of the AusSumatra Final Tribal. I don’t want to be Stranded’s answer to Amanda Kimmel. At the very least this time I’m on better terms with everybody and I’d have Penner, Rebecca and Stacy who’d probably get less votes.

Flicka said something about hating two people which I’m assuming is Cecilia and Jessica, but they’re probably talking in Ponderosa about how I’m xyz’s bitch or whatever – and the non-answer at tribal was probably perceived as gloating which I did not intend to do. It just makes it more clear that they’d vote for each other over us which is only keeping us closer together or about how my attempts to be funny are so pathetic or whatever.

[Nate]

I know I’m sort of Sierra-ing right now and teasing a move to be made but honestly that’s just Cecilia, she told all of them to vote for Cassandra “just in case” the votes were to be changed. I know people probably don’t take me seriously because I don’t talk a lot of game with everybody and I’m on the lower end of post counts, but I’m trying to bond with people so I can get them on my side.

I think I’ve said something to all of Cassandra, Stacy and Jessica that I’d be willing to ditch Cecilia later, I don’t think Cassandra will stay that long because Cassandra actually has a chance of winning and Cecilia is more of a goat. Granted, she’ll win because I doubt people see me as strategic enough, but whatever.

[Nate]

There’s also a bit of a Mykines 1.0 and Svinoy 2.0 faction that I’m worried about where it all falls on Cecilia, Me, Candice and Penner, but I’m far from the first person who’d be targeted in that alliance so I feel like that would be interesting to see how that plays out. I also doubt Liliana would work with Jessica. But they all seem onboard to vote out Liliana which would give Svinoy 1.0 the majority and make me less paranoid.

I feel like Cecilia’s long-term plan (or at the very least one of them) is to try to put herself in the middle between two pairs at the Final 6 and to either beat me at the Final Tribal Council or vote me out at 4. But the thing is that Cecilia doesn’t understand that when she puts herself in that scenario she puts me in that scenario, and also people are kind of sick of her shit. If she gets voted out after Liliana and is final 9, I imagine the hosts will spend all their time in ponderosa watching them argue and will forget the game all together.

[Nate]

In my opinion the three people I have to get out because they will always 100% beat me in a final tribal is Jessica, Cassandra and Cecilia. I feel like Cassandra and Cecilia will always take care of it and one of them will be out at Final 9 and I guess it’s up to me to get rid of the other two. I don’t think I can plan after the Final 9 because a lot of it depends on who gets power that week, but I feel like that side hates Cecilia and Jessica and will probably side with Cassandra, which worries me. Especially considering all the bullshit plans that Cecilia has given them so far. Even if that side gets power, hopefully I can keep immunity away from Cecilia and Jessica, so in that case I’ll be at the F7 which is another big number because the three Hesturs will still be together in that scenario.

Anyway, I’m trying to talk more with Rocky and Rebecca to trying to curry favor for the Final 9 vote, but I feel like my joke at the tribal council came across more cocky than it did kind of joke-y. In hindsight I should have just spent all thirty minutes answering that question, and came up with a thousand words answering the question, so it came across as more of a joke.

[Nate]

About Tribal Council, specifically the most recent one, I wasn’t a particular fan of how Flicka did it, but it’s not like she had a choice because Stephannie’s scrambling made all future scrambling kind of ineffective. While I know you guys are all down for crazy bullshit every tribal council, the level of bullshit needs to increase to make it effective, which was the problem with the action scenes in Man of Steel.

Also, speaking about Man of Steel, I think Cassandra might have the hidden immunity idol, but these clues are much harder than the last one so maybe another immunity win is sort of needed to confirm it. I’d doubt it be another one where we can just eliminate somebody like the last time, but I’m not sure if I should read up on Faroe Islands trivia or not.

[Nate]

I’m also kind of suspicious about Jessica’s massive post count. Like I’m not sure if she just isn’t that well-spoken in her tribal councils or if she’s just a host favorite which I can use for the future Jessica boot whenever that happens.

I’m not going to say I’m in the best position in the game, but I’d probably say it’s Candice. Nobody is going to target her but she’s still considered to be a strategic presence in the game, which is something she’s doing really well. She’s also clearly the alpha in her pair of her and Penner. I’m not sure if I should add Candice to the hit list, but if I do get rid of two of the three on the hitlist, I don’t think that it would be an issue.

[Nate]

Now when I think about Candice and suspicious behavior, I’m not sure why I’m disregarding the relationship between Candice and Cecilia and the overall foursome between Penner/Candice/Cecilia/I. That’s probably why Cecilia wants Cassandra out because that puts her in the best position in the game between two pairs both thinking they would be the final four. In that case her move probably is to take me out at Final 6, but I don’t think she sees me as enough of a threat. I also may be overestimating or underestimating the anti-Cecilia sentiment throughout the alliance and it may be just Cassandra, Stacey and the other tribe.

Now, on the topic of diagrams here’s a diagram of what I think the alliances are, both at the Final 10 and Final 9, assuming things go the way that I think I do - also a hidden immunity dickbutt.

[Nate]

[Nate]

I’m also going to do power rankings, in order of current position in the game, because why not?

1. Candice. Candice has a lot of strong alliances that I feel like could do her well at the end of the game, she’s also not that big of a target and is sociable and smart enough to be able to try to make of something should she end up in the minority.

2. Jessica. I feel like Jessica is really strong in challenges and of the big three definitely benefits from the Cassandra/Cecilia blowup, whenever that happens. However, if she ever does end up in the minority she’ll be taken out pretty quickly. I don’t think she’ll get votes from much of the Svinoys though.

3. Rocky. He is by far the biggest jury threat. If he gets to the end he wins. Especially considering that I think he could potentially slip through the cracks when the Cecilia and Cassandra thing blows up. I also know that both Cecilia and Cassandra “love him” and I feel like both of them are going to work with him if Liliana gets voted out next. I don’t think he realizes that’s the best thing in his game though.

4. Nate. I’m not a target, but I feel like my fate is too intertwined with Cecilia in this game, which is something I don’t want to risk. I also don't feel comfortable of putting myself over the other three.

5. Cassandra. Same thing with Cecilia, of the big three characters/strategists of the season she has a pretty large target on her back.

6. Cecilia. Of the “big three people” she has the largest target on her back. If she makes it to the end she’ll win, but that’s a big if. Also, as I said before I am 99.99% sure that one of Cecilia and Cassandra would be taken out at 9.

7. Liliana. Pretty much dead in the water, if she survives this boot she might have a chance but she’s made enemies of two of the big three people of Cassandra, Jessica and Cecilia and will be targeted before either Rocky or Rebecca even if she survives this.

8. Rebecca. Not taken particularly seriously, I know this is a case of the pot calling the kettle black, but I do think that she has a low chance of winning. She’ll beat Stacy and Penner due to tribe affiliations though.

9. Stacy and Penner. Not nearly active enough, won’t win in a Final 3 and I don’t think people would show up if those two are the final two. In this case my vote would definitely go for Stacy, but idk if that’s a majority opinion.

[Nate]

Now to answer the questions:

With the game ramping up and councils coming faster and more often, are you prepared for the endgame?

I still feel like I can’t really prepare for the endgame until one of the big three characters/strategist/dominators/whatever is eliminated. I think it’s going to be at the Final 9, but whatever. I think my hope is that I’m at a good place. I’m also moving to the UK on September 11th, which in my time zone is a game day, so I need to be prepared if I get to that point, but I believe on September 11th, we would be down to the Final Four/Five/Six, so it should be clear and I would prevote in that scenario. So I’m going to need to be prepared to not win immunity in that scenario.

Have you been exploring all of your options in this game, or do you have only one clear direction to follow?
I feel like I’m keeping up a decent relationship with most of the people in the game and I think I could probably work around

Do you believe any of your allies are planning to betray you?
Not at the Final 10. I feel like 9 is what I’m really afraid of, but anybody betraying me would betray Cecilia or Jessica first, where I hopefully could survive a week and get to 7 when they try to get a F4 going.

[Nate]

No N8 R8s or Random Tangent today because I’m already at 2000 words. Though I guess in the case of the last confessional those were more the majority of the text was the tangent which probably got at least a few of the hosts angry at me and made me the widely disliked character I am, though to be fair my personality does that already.

I’m also kind of afraid of pissing off Probst with my non answer in tribal. So he’ll rig the game against me, but I’m working with Jessica and you guys are definitely rigging the game in her favor so I guess that’s good. Anyway, I’ll send my round of PMs and come back to you tomorrow.

[Nate]

Cassandra/Jess just asked me to vote Cecilia.

I feel like their votes must be the Mykines 1.0, which I'm afraid of giving them a majority.

[Nate]

Just asked Candice to see what she would do, she said she heard about and going with them. Looks like I have no choice.