Okay, people have been responding now.
> Cecilia has obviously outed herself as the leader but she refers to people blindly as "her peeps" so I have no idea who's in power
I've had a chance to speak to are:
> Penner -> Seems nice but pseudo-floaty. However, he did message me "how's your attempts of staying" after he. He could be one of the aforementioned "peeps" - but I can't imagine Penner being a major player.
> Cecilia -> Has mentioned that she's in a big alliance. Did the typical "I think I'm in charge" thing of saying her "group" wasn't sure yet in an attempt to get me to promise something, which is probably bullshit because not that many people came online during that time. I feel like she's certainly in the majority alliance, which I'll try to weasel myself into and hopefully end up in a better position post-Swap. She reminds me of a couple of people I played with before (not sure if I should give specific examples in confessionals) and hopefully I might be able to
> Rebecca -> Rebecca has only spoken to me in vague open strokes. She's the person I've spoken to the least and she doesn't want anything more strategic than "oh i love doing confessionals lol" -> which again, is probably bullshit judging on how quickly I'm catching up to her on post count. I think she's probably allied with Cecilia based on my convos with Flicka. I do find her constant emoji usage to be
though.
> Flicka -> Flicka in my opinion probably is the least likely to be sweetened Easter candy she seems to be out of it as well, she speaks in vague "good for the tribe" language, which will probably be "good" for me (even though I know we're swapping). She also mentioned that the two she would like out are Ozzy and Rebecca because they didn't take part in the last challenge -> which is weird because everybody has been unilaterally only mentioning Ozzy as the "other person we need to take out" which is strengthening the "Rebecca is a peep" theory
> Adam -> Adam seems cool. We've spoken in very basic strategy and it seems like he's trying to keep me in over Ozzy, which I'm pretty sure puts him into the very solid "Peep" camp.
> Stephannie -> I haven't spoken to her yet, but she's the only one to have a convo with Old Nate. She's leading on post count which I know means nothing because the first challenge could have been anything - but it's interesting.
> Ozzy -> probably the target. I know we're going to swap so I wouldn't be worried if I was him. He's been online in the bottom right corner but hasn't responded to any messages made by me though.
Nothing from JP or Candice. There is a constant mention of "people need to be online to change their votes" which I figure must be a reference to those two so I'd say at least one or both of them are "peeps".
But I'm assuming there are five peeps because without Nate 5 is needed for a majority. So far my theory is Cecillia+Adam+Rebecca+(Possibly Penner/JP/Candice/Stephannie). Ozzy and Flicka are out of it, which would mean one or two more people should be "out of it" as well.
. You don't have to only update when you are prompted to, whenever you have an idea shoot it at us because we want to know everything. 
